Will 2025 see renewable energy overtake coal in electricity generation?
The significant increase in renewable energy capacity in 2023, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA), indicates a promising trend towards a cleaner and more sustainable energy future.
The 510 GW increase in global capacity additions represents a 50% growth over 2022, demonstrating the rapid pace of renewable energy deployment.
China's emergence as a key driver of this global growth is particularly noteworthy.
China has been investing heavily in renewable energy infrastructure, including wind, solar, and hydropower projects, and their efforts have contributed significantly to the overall increase in renewable capacity. This highlights the country's commitment to transitioning to cleaner energy sources and reducing its reliance on fossil fuels.
The report's findings are encouraging for achieving the global goal established at the COP28 climate conference. By growing renewable energy capacity 2.5 times by 2030, the world is on track to triple its renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade. This progress brings us closer to a sustainable energy system and aligns with international efforts to combat climate change.
Furthermore, the report predicts that renewable energy will surpass coal as the largest source of global electricity generation by early 2025. This milestone is significant as it indicates a shift away from fossil fuels towards cleaner alternatives. Renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, offer environmental benefits, including reduced greenhouse gas emissions and improved air quality.
“The new IEA report shows that under current policies and market conditions, global renewable capacity is already on course to increase by two-and-a-half times by 2030. It’s not enough yet to reach the COP28 goal of tripling renewables, but we’re moving closer – and governments have the tools needed to close the gap,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Biro.
Other regions that reached record renewable energy capacity increases included the U.S., EU and Brazil, each of which are also expected to see solar PV and wind deployment more than double from 2023-2028 compared to the prior 5-year period.
By type, solar PV accounted for the significant majority – around three quarters – of the capacity additions worldwide in 2023, while going forward, declining costs for new solar PV and onshore wind installations are seen as increasing their competitiveness, with almost all wind and solar PV capacity deployed expected to provide lower generation costs than coal and natural gas alternatives for new plants by 2028, according to the IEA forecast.
Offshore wind projections, however, were revised down by 15% in areas outside of China, driven by higher investment costs that have led to the cancellation or delay of 15 GW of projects in 2023.
This highlights the key challenges required to be addressed in order to reach the COP28 goal of tripling renewables capacity by 2030, including policy uncertainty and delayed policy responses to the new macroeconomic, insufficient investment in grid infrastructure which is holding back a faster expansion of renewables, administrative barriers and cumbersome permitting procedures, as well as insufficient financing in emerging and developing economies.
But perhaps the most important challenge for the international community is rapidly scaling up financing and deployment of renewables in most emerging and developing economies, many of which are being left behind in the new energy economy.
Only when these challenges are met will we have a chance of meeting the pledges made at COP 28.
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